Which virtual world platforms will have the most active users over 18yrs old in June 2009?

My best guess is Lively, as they (Google) already have a massive userbase that they just need to convince to give it a try. But atm, Lively is nothing but a 3D enhanced chatroom?

should add Opensim to the list I guess? Or is it just more noise from LL? Seems like noise for the next 12 months, and not sure how Opensim is going to magically pile up a big feature set (unless IBM drives that and who would you rather pay for monthly service??? IBM or LL?) http://secondlife.reuters.com/stories/2008/07/11/interview-linden-prepar... So if Linden Lab makes its money from land, and OpenSim can provide land to avatars cheaper than Linden can afford to offer, how will Linden survive as OpenSim approaches the feature set and reliability found today on the Second Life Grid? And why is Linden working so aggressively to empower easy traveling from Second Life and into OpenSim? Linden’s plan, Miller [Linden VP Joe Miller] said, is to identify “value-added services” it can offer to a potentially chaotic mix of thousands of disparate OpenSim grids. He declined to comment on the company’s exact strategy, beyond insisting that Linden has “some very specific plans.”

Out of those, it will be SL. Lively might have potential if they allow user-produced content, but it isn't at all clear to what level they will be doing that, and when. In any event, pretty much every single comment I have seen from "real people" so far on it has been either "I can't get in" or "I can get in and it's boring". I don't really know Vivaty but it just looks like the usual no-user-content "avatar chat" thing, as does Twinity. People have been able to customise avatars for many years now and there have been a number of IM systems with avatars involved, only, the traditional ones are still dominant. Without really having things to do which involve virtual space - not just running a few emotes, or panning around a 3D picture, but actual interaction between avatar and environment - virtual worlds are useless processor hogs. And a lack of user-generated content restricts what those things can be, drastically restricts the point to the user of having a virtual world at all. Why go in to see the same furniture and clothes and avatars? Why not just use MSN if you want to chat?

SL is still best placed of the major virtual worlds to top the market for the over 18's set. Rooms based worlds have restricted applications and tend to appeal more to tweens (always have and always will). I agree with SimGuru that an opensource solution will rule the day in 5 years time, the apache or SQL of virtual worlds so to speak. Consumers may not even be fully aware of the underlying system, as it'll be the solution provider they associate with the world, rather than the technology - (variations of which will be in use by other worlds). In terms of the older crowd I expect the killer world will be associated with the killer app. That could be a commercial collaboration product, or say something in the education market. The application may be narrow, but something for which participation in a virtual world environment has compelling positives.... enough to make it compulsory for the activity, and show significant cost benefits. I'm concentrating on commercial applications here, as in terms of leisure activities, many virtual world applications are better handled by mmogs... and so I expect those activities to migrate to purpose built worlds which are more tightly focused - powerful and flexible like virtual worlds, but really games. Entropia comes to mind as a current incarnation of this type of thing. These applications will probably be born in the rapid prototyping environment of virtual worlds, then migrate (perhaps thru third party providers such as multiverse) into mature social gaming platforms. Because of this I think communication, commercial, cultural, educational, and other "serious" applications, will be the driving force in growing the over 18s crowd within virtual worlds. Now it's just a matter of seeing who serves these applications best - and seeing it's all about user generated content, which communities step up to the plate and does something compelling enough in their virtual world to bring people in from outside.

My money is on something else. I don't think that user created content is the future. We humans aren't productive enough and internet connections aren't fast enough. In the future I'm expecting huge dynamic computer generated worlds with maybe a sprinkling of user created content. Think computer generated planets, cities and vast rolling landscapes. Games like Spore and GTA IV are hinting at what's to come. Come to think of it, I actually found Second Life while searching for an online version of GTA or something similar. Activeworlds was my first port of call.. ugh! The vast majority of SL's users don't really care about who or what created the content, they just want to hang out with their internet pals in a realistic environment with realistic avatars with realistic boobies. A version of Sony's Home on the PC would be popular with the fun loving and flirtatious SL users. Probably more popular than it's gonna be with the kids on the PS3. GTA IV may arrive on the PC one day and that'll be popular with SL's male users. I guess what I'm saying is that content creation isn't that important and that the line between video game and virtual world is gonna get very blurry. Just keep an eye on those pesky consoles!. :) Gotta go, Wilma's callin!...

thanks for comments--I tried to collect them and made a little table here --> http://rezzable.com/blog/rightasrain-rimbaud/virtual-world-platforms-wat...

Doh, I meant Multiverse not Metaverse in the above :P Sorry