OpenSpaces: A Bad Product Gets Worse

It doesn't really take a lot of effort to see that the price “jack-up” on the Voids that became OpenSpaces means anyone who keeps that simulator product will be paying a lot more for a lot less. And not just less prim density--but less peformance. Aren't hosting+server costs supposed to go down over time? Isn't performance meant to improve over time? Isn't efficiency meant to improve over time? LL seems to have it all backwards (...again).

The offering from M Linden (= Mark Kingdon, CEO Linden Labs) does little to make this mess right and adds a new layer of confusion and technical nonsense to the already stressed Second Life user-base and the SL virtual world platform as well.

Anyway, here are some comments and more detail on why the OpenSpace offering looks so terrible. I am not sure this commentary is new, but some of the ideas explaining what the issue really is might be interesting enuff.  * Warning danger of boringness is high and I show a spreadsheet*  (Better to go watch a fun machinima here!)

Linden Lab basically has two product offerings: 1) a full CPU-based simulator = a private island, also called a Region or 2) managed land sharing of a CPU-based simulator which is a parcel or an OpenSpace. The original Void product was still a full CPU-based product but configured the simulator into 4 Regions instead of 1. The original Void still was sold to one owner and had to be kept together as a block of 4 Regions. The scandal of the OpenSpaces began when Linden Lab started to allow these Voids to be split up to different owners effectively making it blind CPU sharing. Blind CPU sharing on the Second Life grid is very bad as it makes it impossible to manage sim performance, plus the possible sim loading is significantly higher than normal, further resulting in owners getting what appears to be randomly serious lag and even sim crashes. At least on a Mainland Region you can look at the map and see where the possible lag-inducing activity may be coming from—with an OpenSpace this is impossible (although LL could actually figure that out).

At the same time the OpenSpaces were a huge part of the claim that Second Life was growing—really the only good news about the future of SL that we have been fed in 2007 (ok, so Mono and H4 are actually good things and should not get forgotten). But how does Linden fumble the execution on such a popular offering—twice even? There seem to be many options for dealing with this mess, but LL chose ambush and misinformation over a real solution. But why did LL even start selling OpenSpaces in the first place? Any technical LL staffer who thought about it for 5 minutes would have immediately realized the potential performance issues. Seems like another internal disconnect between the people with the revenue targets and the people with the technical geek-speak, babble. It's about the money and LL maybe was trying to squeeze the landbarons. Greed sounds like enuff.

Let's drill a little deeper to the core of the OpenSpace issue. Think about a full sim (=Region) running on a new class 5 server (not such a blazing hot server btw). LL says they host dual-core dual-cpu machines that run 2 Regions each on its own CPU. That type of server btw with 10mps of unmetered bandwidth is about $USD 200-250/month when we priced it recently. An Island=Region=Full Sim (like Greenies for example) can handle about 50 avatars max under active conditions before it get lagged-out beyond most people's patience threshold. We see that type of sim crash regularly under club conditions if it goes over 60 avatars.

So let's take a look at some of the costs on a Region like Greenies: 15,000 prims for $USD295 per month. It also would cost $1,000 to buy it now (actually we paid more in 2007 before LL screwed er...revised the pricing to lower acquisition costs and raise monthly tier). So if you look at this cost over the course of a year it comes out to $25.22 per thousand prims (CTP) per month. The old void cost was a little higher as the prims were a touch lower and that CTP = $25.56. The new pricing for the void with a paltry 700 prims comes out to $136.90 CTP and the 3750 version comes to $41.67 CTP. There is no clear economic sense to paying some much for so little.

But of course there are other factors involved more than cost. There is prim-to-land Density. So actually there is more space on a sim than just the 2D view of a sim. You now have up to 4000m vertical space. This used to be 750m but H4 and the newer viewers give us a huge amount more vertical space. So cubic km3 on a sim is 262,144km3 or even more if you travel beyond 4000m. So if we look again at Greenies we can see a prim/1000km3 density at 57.22 and the old void at 14.31. Now this density topic is more interesting on parcels where there is a lot of variance. It will also be interesting to see how/if LL decides to start pricing vertical space limits.

More interesting though than Density are two other factors that I call Interference and Action Rating.

Interference is an index that tries to capture potential lag from sharing that one and only CPU. So if you run something with 50 avatars max and you have no contention for CPU processing, you would expect to have no interference. Now if you push it to 60 or go nuts to 100 you would also expect to see increasing sim processing interference and have a diminished user experience resulting in lag and/or crash. But at least in that case you are interfering with yourself and could stop.

* Weird formula alert *

Interference = (Max sim loading / Avatars not under control) / Avatar benchmark max

You can see quickly that because each void was allowed same avatar loading as a full sim that the potential loading would have been 200 even though each owner was only aiming for standard usage. LL could have just told everyone and/or capped the avatar allowance.  Also this could have been fixed by finding a way to communicate capacity across the voids sharing that CPU (ie like a percentage of total). But it is clear also that LL did not want to solve the problem, but instead extract more money to ignore it at the expense of the users not in their interests as Kingdon claims.

The Interference on the new void would potentially be low, but LL left it uncommitted what the actual CPU sharing would be...seems like they will go for 8 voids on a CPU? In which case the interference rating would be unacceptable.

The Action Rating is what you can do on with your simulator. On your own Island you still can do what you want (except have under 18s) so the Action Rating is 100. For the new OpenSpace product there is usage and scripting limitations (not yet fully described). Now these low Action Rating are probably meant to offset the Interference, but looks like another fine mess.

How is Linden Lab going to police their usage terms? Wtf is “habitation” is that a house—even if no one is in it? Is it a tree? what about dancing around on the beach--for days on end as campers?? Is it doing something like virtual sex (oops... that is virtual copulation and Linden still let's you do that). Linden has made a massive mistake in even speaking about land usage in this way. They will certainly end-up in court with a major challenge if they try to ban an owner for using his sim. So this is an empty threat—or is Linden about to change its style completely and start monitoring sim usage? Start giving incentives for people to rat on each other?

Anyway, if you wanna take a more detailed look at my weird formulas and try to see if your parcel is a good deal or not download it here. Drop me any comments or feedback as always appreciated.

Net net..the new pricing ruins the benefits of having an OpenSpace. Keep an eye on the Linden Island statistics to see how many people drop them or convert them. There are something like 13,000 on the grid now--so it could be a lot of shrinking the SL Land Mass and a big virtual reality check for the braintrust over in Lindenworld.

related posts:

Disclaimer: We had 6 void sims. 4 have been converted back in to a single full region. 1 is deleted and another will be deleted at the end of November. We also have deleted 2 fulls sims and plan to delete 4 more at the end of November.

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Comments

Interesting Formula's

You have an interesting approach at looking at the situation. Albeit, computer math is a bit more technical than your outline :)

One thing we can agree on is that Linden does have a way of enticing people with jargon. Suggesting a "Class" of server better than another without producing specific hardware details as any other host would do. In retrospect, I think Linden has produced their own eventual demise with the jargon and it's continued usage. If they want to lay it on the line, I am sure a few technical geeks would be able to produce some sort of a graphic illistration for the technical requriments of hosting a simulator. Maybe not perfectly as we do not have Lindens base code. However, there is enough here to work with to verify and accertain the necessities for the service.

They continually write jargon to use. New classes of products popping up etc.. Which is fine, there has to be a guidline for service products just as tangilble goods. However, what they fail to recognise is that they are not fooling everyone. Quite a few know how Linden has operated for at least the last 3 or better years. They have allowed themselves to becone very out of touch with the users and people who foot the bill for the service. That or, and it may be the case, they don't care.

This whole Open Space deal is fraud in my opinion. Out right fraud at that. They still in the second blog (latest fix blog), state that the residents have admitted that the simulator space was over used. I've not found anyone who stated they agreed

You don't have to have a college degree to understand that "bait & switch" is a serious crime. To produce a product, increase such virtual resources for the product, and then claim that it was not being used as intended is not a logical argument in any form. Yet Linden tends to be illogical in most of their business dealings with those that pay for the service.

It wasn't only the price increase that posed the issues, it was the "amount" of the price increase that I feel could pose Linden legal troubles. The second time around with the respnose to public outcry was far more reaching than the first. The increase is, over time, much more of a percentage than the original increase as stated prior. This is unacceptable for most as no company ever gets away with jabbing the consumer for such huge increases without some form of protest or legal issues.

The other issue I have with the scenario is Linden's incessant continued effort to condemn the users. Not privately, but publically they blame the users for the situation. This is just too much. It's one thing to state there is an issue if you believe there need be a change, it's another to state that it was the users who posed the issue to begin with. This of course was the claim made with the over usage statements when in fact, no such limits were ever placed on the simulators at any time. The VOID regions spoke about are NOT the same as the Open Space product they created where they upped the usage themselves from 1800 or so primitives to 3750 or so primitives. This is the product people purchased. Not the prior VOID sim region product that sold in amounts of 4 sims per private simulator owner (you had to be a simulator owner to purchase void 4 set). Completely different situations and even admitted by Jacks statement of what products they have creasted. However, VOID is not Open Space, don't be fooled by the continued effort to claim that all you were supposed to use the space for was ocean etc.. You don't need an increase from 1800 or so prim to 3750 or so prim to have an ocean space.

Thus, the switch, thus the "bait and switch". Now Linden sold off a huge amount of "better deal" simulator spaces not knowing the true need for a lower cost alternative to full simulator hosting. And of course it was a winner in terms of sales.

Linden can claim the hardware/resource argument all they want. But it will eventually be their downfall if they continue on the path they are on. Linden can continue to claim that the issues were created by the persons leasing space on the servers. This will no doubt backfire and pose Linden new issues. Maybe even a few legal issues.

In 3 years. My witness experience is not only that of very poor management, but out right fraud in various forms. This last deal with the Open Space jargon and the new virtual product called "Homestead" really takes the cake for pathetic business practices as approached by Linden Lab.

 

@ Anony--yeah, it seems like

@ Anony--yeah, it seems like LL is very exposed to the owners of 13,000 voids/openspaces, which by definition are also the owners of the 14,000 private islands = full sims = regions. At least the renters of the 5,000 have no claim on LL!

Also I just tossed a comment about core - CPU points out on a blog comment, i think this is also a very confusing point about how a Region actually runs. My comments regarding regions not running a "core" but on the "CPU":

From my discussions with various techie types there is no specific coding that would allow for a direct mapping of a region to a core. A CPU in fact does not get arithmetically more powerful as there are more cores–ie a quad core is not 2x as powerful as a dual core. So it is unlikely that a quad-core, dual cpu machine would effectively handle 8 regions under the same code that is running 2 regions on a dual-core, dual-CPU = Class 5.

In fact it would seem odd to map a Region to a core in a multiple core CPU, when in fact the usage on Regions is not flat, but more bursty depending on load. For example–why leave a core processing unit idle when there is no contention for processing. So if everyone is at a party on part of the CPU, then why reserve processing for empty “habitations”.

In fact Linden has envisioned a more dynamic virtualization for Regions, but as usual started it only and not carried it along. http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/AWG_Virtualization.

I am pretty sure (but actually don’t know 100%) that the Region code hits the CPU and the core is an internal CPU tool that increases parallelism of processing and pushes more work through the CPU. The whole reason that Intel started the core technology was that it could not increase CPU speed cost-effectively and parallelism was next best thing.

Also on the LL website they say that a Class 5 is a dual-core, dual-CPU and they run two regions = 1 region per CPU.

I would also doubt that even LL is dumb enough to lease a server for more than 12 months at a time. I think running 10,000 and more servers already puts them in a good enough negotiating position. I would see it more likley that they are rotating the older machines into grid services rather than hosting even voids.

from SL blog post in July:

from SL blog post in July: Our growth was due to the popularity of our newly launched “Openspace” land product along with a change in pricing to make the purchase of land more accessible to first time buyers.

Wonder what the Quarterely results announcment will look like for Q3 2008?

Zee Linden also tosses out a tantilzing little scrap of info: Because land represents nearly 8x more revenue to us than premium accounts, our focus has been on the launching of new land products rather than on enhancing the premium subscription.

Hmmm.... so about 80,000 premiums at $8/month each = $640,000 which so means Land Business is about $5.05mm/month.

So land revenue breakdown is something like:

  • 13,000 voids at avg $50 = $650,000
  • 5,000 Mainland regions yielding $300 = 1.5mm
  • 14,000 Islands split 40% full price @$295/month = $1.65mm
  • and 60% under a education or other discount @$147.50/month = $1.25mm

So probably Linden is figuring that they can keep more than 5,000 OpenSpaces after the "price jacks-up" to have same revenue with less effort. But this seems like a bad bet as many sims will flip back to full sims (many on discount).

 

 

1 Core, 2 Core, 3Core, Give me more!

Well, it's all about the overall throughput that most are concerned with. Finding the bottlenecks that produce the most issues is a daunting task.  I seriously doubt, especially at this stage of the game, that there is any connection whatsovever between the base code being directly tied to any single core registers. My belief on the matter is that they just claim one sim per core as a division unit per server. In other words, 2 cores, two simulators as a generic way of conducting what resource usage is provided each. But I serously doubt that the base code is tied to any certain processor core. I'm not saying that it's impossible, but I am saying that I doubt it is the situation you witness when Linden speaks of a core per simulator.

I have, just for a simple visual test loaded upwards of 45 back to back open simulators on as little as 780M of ram before the blank simulators would not function on linux from a remote location. This is by no means a serious way of testing, but it does show that a requirement may be obtained as to what the true resource usage and requirements are. At least in a broader sense. Detail can become apparent via the testing. However, serious detailed reference to what resources are being used would of course take time and a set of testing scripts written for the purpose, and dependant on the platform. There are some generic scripts that would be of use to monitor some of the usage.

It's trial and error, but Linden should have this down by now as to what hardware resources are required per simulator and limits to scripting per simulator is paramount even with scripting limits imposed.  You don't have to have low leval statistics to have a fundamentally sound perspective on what an end user sees and experiences. And certainly the end user is not required to be all knowlegable of usage when they have no access to verify the claim. Even so, Linden's product is a managed service and end users are not required for the over usage even if it be the case. However, with no hard limits imposed on the various areas of concerned, it certainly isn't within Linden's best interest to babble blog about over usage.

Personally, I believe Linden believes they under estimated how successful the product would be at that price setting, and decided to do whatever it took to make more from it.

 

 

@ anony--but also what is

@ anony--but also what is baffling is that LL knows this is more land capacity than new users demanding land, so a move to rapidly increase land mass has to hammer price somewhere in their holdings? So clearly the openspaces have had a big impact on their Mainland sim yeilds. So why not just slow down the order time to deliver for OpenSpaces and make them a little more scarce? It is very worrying to see such flooding of the land market when in fact Linden is the market maker. Well, I guess trying to run a monopoly isn't that easy-- http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/worldbusiness/12oil.html?_r=1... . Especially for LInden that is running not a monopoly on a not essential product.

"So clearly the openspaces

"So clearly the openspaces have had a big impact on their Mainland sim yeilds."

I have heard this argument and believe it accurate in a substantial way. Of course people are going to purchase what they feel is the best bang for the buck. And this product certainly "was" for most users and for the short amount of shelf life it had. It offered one quarter of the fifteen thousand usage prims of it's full simulator resource, at a cost more attainable by the masses. Even at 75.00USD it is quite expensive for the 3,700 primitive usage you receive. But, still more cost effective for most and allowed better control privs.

Not everyone that is interested in the product has the desire for a full simulator. And in fact, most don't. It's not just the associated outragous "non refunable" setup and fees being charged, many only want the service for personal work and enjoyment. When this  <jargon>"Open Space"</jargon> product was advertised, many people took advantage of the additional prim allotment as it was somewhat a more viable solution to the over priced and network laggy <SL jargon>mainland</SL jargon> region virtual space.  And I do believe the sales figures would show that the end users were taking advantage of the lower priced, lower usage spaces. But my understanding from the outset of the announcement was that this was the intention for the product. One would think so, no?

Bad PR

Oh hurry, back peddle, we want more money now we see how popular this idea was. Maybe we should offer 10K USD "in L" for someone to connect real life and second life in some way others will feel and see it as important.

Business as usual at LL. Sell a service, create a problem, be the savior, make more money. Such is politics illegal or not.

Makes one vomit in both worlds.

Hegelien Dialectic

Bait and Switch no no!

To quote

"So Clearly the openspaces"

Wed, 11/12/2008 - 01:43 — Anonymous (not verified)

- (Business as usual at LL. Sell a service, create a problem, be the savior, make more money. Such is politics illegal or not.)

This sounds like another case of the 'Hegelian Dialectic' at work.

Create something that becomes a problem to be solved, react and then solve it yourself according to your agenda and nobody else's.

Thesis - Antithesis - Synthesis, 'or 'the whole'

Problem - Reaction - Solution

Do a Google search on the subject!
 

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